Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has slightly adjusted its global demand growth projection downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 2 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year. However, this forecast remains substantially higher, by over a million barrels per day, than the estimates provided by the IEA and EIA. The EIA is also revising its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.2 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year. In contrast, the IEA has maintained its global demand growth forecasts unchanged for 2024 y/y. OPEC has also revised downward its growth forecast for 2025 by a modest 40 tb/d. The divergence in global demand growth forecasts across the three agencies for 2025 is approximately 0.7 mb/d year-over-year.

Supply

OPEC has kept its projections for non-Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) oil supply growth unchanged at around 1.3 mb/d in 2024 y/y and 1.2 mb/d in 2025 y/y. The EIA has also maintained its forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth for both 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 0.8 mb/d y/y and 1.6 mb/d for 2024 y/y and 2025 y/y, respectively. The IEA has kept its non-DoC supply growth projections unchanged for 2024 y/y while projecting a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d for 2025 y/y. The divergence among the short-term non-DoC supply growth forecasts from these three organizations is expected to reach 0.2 mb/d for 2024 y/y and 0.4 mb/d for 2025 y/y.

Energy supply and demand: Challenges in a volatile market

Members of the OPEC+ alliance decided to extend voluntary cuts on September 5th reportedly postponing their planned increase in oil production by 180 tb/d in October to maintain oil market stability. This decision is part of a broader strategy to gradually reintegrate a total of 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts into the market over the coming months. The next meeting of the JMMC will be held on October 2nd, and then OPEC+ ministers will hold a full meeting of the group on December 1st.

Beyond weakening economic trends and oil inventory build, disruptions remain a significant risk to the global energy balance. Recent oil production outages in Libya have led to temporary loss of approximately half a million barrels per day.

Summary of 2023-2025 Balances

• OPEC has revised slightly its global demand growth forecast down to 2.0 mb/d for 2024 year-over-year, marking the second consecutive downward revision this year. For 2025, the forecast has also been adjusted for the first time to 1.7 mb/d, down from 1.8 mb/d in the previous month's revision.
• Despite this modest decrease from OPEC this month, the divergence in global demand growth forecasts remains significant among the three agencies, with a difference of over one million barrels per day for 2024.
• The IEA has maintained its forecast for global demand growth for 2024 and 2025 at 0.9 mb/d year-over-year and 1 mb/d year-over-year, respectively.

• The EIA has revised its forecasts for global demand upward by 0.1 mb/d for the full year 2024, driven by non-OECD demand growth, while keeping its forecasts for 2025 unchanged.
• The IEA has revised its OECD demand growth forecasts upward by 0.1 mb/d for both 2024 and 2025 year-over-year, while revising down its non-OECD growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d year-over-year for both years.
• OPEC revised its non-DoC supply growth upward for the full years 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 mb/d each year.

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 0.1 mb/d to 2.0 mb/d year-on-year.
• The EIA has revised up its global demand growth by 0.1 mb/d for the full year in 2024, while the IEA has kept its global demand growth forecast unchanged.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC has revised down its global oil demand growth by approximately 80 tb/d in 2024, informed by new data received.
• The EIA's global demand growth forecast shows a downward revision of nearly 0.2 mb/d year-on-year.
• The IEA has kept its global demand forecasts unchanged, with the decline in Non-OECD demand offset by an increase in OECD demand.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• The EIA's year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply has been revised down for the fourth consecutive month.
• The divergence between the IEA's and EIA's forecast for US supply growth declined to less than 0.15 mb/d, down from 0.2 mb/d in last month's revision.

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

• The divergence in global oil demand growth forecasts among major agencies remains significant, despite this month's downward revisions.
• Although OPEC has slightly revised its estimate downward for global demand, its levels remain approximately 0.7 mb/d above the IEA projections y/y and 0.2 mb/d higher than those of the EIA y/y.
• The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast downward by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC has slightly revised its global demand growth forecast downward (~40 tb/d) for the second time this year.
• Despite the relative downward revision by OPEC, its global demand growth forecast is still 0.7 mb/d greater than the IEA's projections.
• The IEA has almost maintained its global demand growth for 2025 unchanged.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• The divergence between IEA's and EIA's non-OPEC supply growth forecasts reached almost 0.2 mb/d, with the IEA maintaining its upward revision.
• The IEA's forecast for US oil supply growth exceeded the EIA's and OPEC's forecasts for the first time this year.

Key Charts