Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market
Thursday 16 January 2025
Summary and Oil Market Context
Demand
OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), while projecting demand growth in 2026 to reach 1.4 mb/d year-over-year. Most of this growth (approximately 1.3 mb/d) is expected to be driven by non-OECD countries.
The EIA has kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) year-over-year for 2025. This robust oil demand growth is expected to continue in 2026, reaching 1.1 million b/d year-over-year. However, this growth is less than the pre-pandemic 10-year average (2010–2019) of 1.5 million b/d.
The IEA has revised up its estimates of global oil demand growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 by approximately 0.26 mb/d, compared to the previous month's revision. Global oil demand growth for 2024 is now assessed at 0.94 mb/d, with an acceleration to 1.05 mb/d expected in 2025 as the economic outlook improves marginally.
Supply
OPEC maintained its non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast for 2025 at 1.2 mb/d y/y, unchanged from last month's assessment. The non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2026 is also forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, and Canada in both years.
The EIA projections for non-DoC supply growth in 2025 are expected to reach approximately 1.7 mb/d year-over-year, while the growth forecast for 2026 is projected to reach 0.9 mb/d y/y. The EIA has also maintained its crude oil production forecast for the US at 13.5 mb/d for 2025 and projects it to moderately increase to 13.6 mb/d by 2026.
The IEA projects non-DoC supply growth to reach 1.5 mb/d y/y by 2025, reaching 62.9 mb/d, while its estimate of non-OPEC supply growth is approximately 1.7 mb/d y/y.
The three agencies' forecasts for non-DoC supply growth show divergence in 2025, with a projected difference of 0.5 million barrels per day year-over-year.
Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions
- The IEA has adjusted its forecast of global oil demand growth for Q4 2024 upward by 0.3 mb/d, which has driven the year-over-year estimate to modestly increase by 0.1 mb/d.
- The EIA has revised its estimate of global demand growth for the full year of 2024 downward by 0.3 mb/d, driven by adjusted estimates from non-OECD countries.
Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts
- The gap between OPEC’s growth estimates and IEA and EIA assessments of global demand remains above 0.5 mb/d y/y, with the rate of growth in an overall declining trend.
- The divergence in estimates of global demand originates from different estimates of non-OECD demand growth.
Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts
- The divergence in non-OPEC supply growth forecasts between the EIA and IEA has widened, now exceeding 0.3 mb/d, in contrast to the minimal differences observed in June of the previous year.
- Estimates developed by the three energy agencies are more aligned on US supply growth forecasts.
Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions
- OPEC adjusted its projections for global demand growth downward by 0.1 mb/d for the full year in 2025, primarily due to a decrease in anticipated growth from non-OECD nations, while y/y estimate remains unchanged at 1.4 mb/d.
- The IEA has revised its global demand growth forecast upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d for the full year of 2025, while the EIA revised its forecast downward by 0.2 mb/d.
Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts
- OPEC has maintained its global demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.45 mb/d y/y.
- Both the EIA and IEA revised down their non-OECD demand growth forecasts by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.
Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts
- The forecasts for US supply growth across agencies are more aligned.
- The EIA and IEA both adjusted their forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth downward for the second consecutive month.
Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions
- OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 1.4 mb/d y/y in 2026, while the EIA projects an increase of 1.1 mb/d for the same period.
- The growth in global oil demand in 2026 will be driven by demand from non-OECD nations.
