Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market
Thursday 13 March 2025
Summary and Oil Market Context
Demand
OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at approximately 1.4 mb/d for the fourth consecutive month. For 2026, global demand is projected to continue at the same pace, with a forecasted global demand growth of 1.4 mb/d. The OECD sees demand increasing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by approximately 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026.
The EIA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y for 2025, compared to last month's assessment. For 2026, the forecast indicates an increase in global demand growth by 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d y/y, driven by rising demand from non-OECD Asia. Transportation demand in India is expected to lead the growth in liquid fuels consumption, with an increase of 0.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. China's liquid fuels demand growth is forecast to rise by approximately 0.3 mb/d in 2025 and 0.2 mb/d in 2026.
The IEA has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.0 mb/d y/y for 2025, an increase from 830 kb/d in 2024. Around 60% of this year's growth will be driven by Chinese petrochemical feedstocks. OECD demand growth sees a decline of 0.1 mb/d y/y, while non-OECD demand growth increases by 1.1 mb/d y/y.
Supply
OPEC has maintained its forecast for non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs growth, keeping it unchanged at approximately 1.1 mb/d year-on-year for both 2025 and 2026. This growth is primarily driven by the United States, Brazil, and Canada in both years. The average non-DoC liquids supply and DoC NGLs are projected to be around 62.6 mb/d in 2025 and approximately 63.7 mb/d in 2026.
The EIA has maintained its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth unchanged at 1.5 mb/d y/y for 2025 relative to last month's assessment, while increasing the 2026 forecast growth by 0.1 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d y/y. The EIA has revised down the forecast growth of non-DoC supply by 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y. For 2026, the growth forecast of non-DoC supply will increase by more than 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d y/y. The growth from countries outside OPEC+ will drive production growth, mainly from the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. The US has maintained its crude production forecast at 13.6 mb/d for 2025 while increasing its production forecast by 0.1 mb/d to 13.8 mb/d for 2026, relative to last month's estimates.
The IEA's non-DoC liquid supply growth forecast for 2025 sees an increase of 0.1 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d y/y, relative to last month's assessment. The non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs forecast from the IEA also shows an increase of 0.1 mb/d to 1.6 mb/d y/y.
The divergence across the three agencies for Non-Doc supply and DoC NGLs is approximately 0.5 mb/d y/y.
Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions
- The IEA lowered its global demand growth forecasts slightly from around 0.9 mb/d last month to 0.8 mb/d year-over-year.
- The EIA has revised its growth estimates for global demand upward by 0.1 mb/d to 1.0 mb/d y/y.
Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts
- Global demand growth estimates from the IEA declined slightly to about 0.83 million barrels per day year-over-year.
- The EIA has adjusted its growth estimates for OECD demand upward by more than 50 kb/d.
Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts
- Non-DoC supply growth for EIA and OPEC shows a moderate declining pattern.
- The divergence between the EIA and the IEA in non-OPEC supply growth exceeds 0.3 mb/d.
Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions
- OPEC has maintained its projection for global oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.4 mb/d y/y and expects the average global demand to be about 105.2 mb/d.
- Global demand growth forecasts from the EIA decline by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y, driven by a decline from OECD demand.
Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts
- OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at approximately 1.4 mb/d y/y for fourth consecutive months.
- Non-OECD demand growth forecasts from the EIA were kept unchanged. OECD demand growth declined by around 0.1 mb/d.
Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts
- OPEC has maintained its non-DoC liquids supply growth at approximately 1.0 mb/d y/y.
- Non-Doc supply growth forecasts from the EIA have declined for the second consecutive month.
Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions
- OPEC has kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.4 mb/d y/y for 2026.
- The EIA has revised its global demand growth forecast upward by more than 0.1 mb/d to 1.2 mb/d y/y.
