Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.4 mb/d, with the OECD expected to see demand increase by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.3 mb/d. At 1.4 mb/din 2026, this growth is projected to continue at the same pace, driven primarily by demand from non-OECD countries.

The EIA has revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward by approximately 0.1 mb/d to 1.4 mb/d year-over-year for 2025, while lowering its growth forecast for 2026 by around 0.1 mb/d to 1.0 mb/d year-over-year, relative to last month's assessment. Despite this growth, it remains below pre-pandemic trajectories. India is expected to increase its demand by 0.3 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026, compared to a growth of 0.2 mb/d in 2024.

The IEA has kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged for the full year of 2024 and 2025 at 0.9 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d, respectively. This growth will be driven by China, India, and other emerging economies in Asia, while OECD countries' oil demand maintains relatively flat in both 2024 and 2025.

Supply

OPEC revised down its non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs growth forecast by approximately 0.1 mb/d in 2025 to a year-over-year growth of 1.1 mb/d. This growth is led by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. The non-DoC liquids supply and DoC NGLs growth in 2026 is also forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d y/y, 0.1 mb/d lower than last month's assessment. The main growth drivers in 2026 are the US, Brazil, and Canada, while Norway sees a large decline.

The EIA projections revised non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 upward by approximately 0.2 mb/d for the full year in 2025, while showing an increase of 0.3 mb/d in 2026. The growth, outside OPEC+, will be driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. US crude production sees an increase of 0.1 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, reaching 13.6 mb/d and 13.7 mb/d respectively.

The IEA's non-DoC and non-OPEC liquid supply growth forecasts for 2024 remain unchanged y/y. For 2025, the IEA projects a decline of 0.1 mb/d in both non-OPEC and non-DoC supply growth, reaching 1.5 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively. This growth is primarily driven by the United States, Canada, and Guyana.

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

• IEA revised its global demand growth forecasts downward by 0.1 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d year-over-year, relative to last month's assessment.
• The EIA has adjusted its estimate for non-OPEC supply growth upward by 0.2 mb/d for the full year of 2024.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• Divergence in estimates of global demand growth is mainly driven by varying estimates of demand growth in non-OECD countries, where the difference exceeds 0.5 mb/d.
• Among non-OECD countries, the gap in agencies' forecasts for China's demand growth ranges from approximately 0.1 to 0.2 mb/d.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• A gap of approximately 0.3 mb/d gap exists between the EIA and IEA's non-OPEC supply growth forecasts.
• Agencies continue to show more alignment on US supply growth forecasts.

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC has maintained its projection for global oil demand growth in 2025, expecting an increase of 1.4 mb/d y/y, unchanged from last month's assessment.
• The IEA has increased its global oil demand growth projection for 2025 by 0.1 mb/d y/y, with the adjustment primarily reflecting revised estimates for the second and third quarters of the year.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast at approximately 1.4 mb/d y/y for three consecutive months.
• IEA slightly increases its forecast of non-OECD demand growth to approximately 1.14 mb/d year-over-year, with an increase of 40 kb/d relative to last month's assessment.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• OPEC revised down its non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs growth by approximately 0.1 mb/d y/y.
• The IEA and EIA project almost similar estimates for non-OPEC supply growth at around 1.43-1.47 mb/d year-on-year, respectively

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC's forecasts indicate that global oil demand will remain unchanged at 1.4 mb/d y/y for 2026, driven by growth in non-OECD demand.
• Compared to last month's assessment, the EIA's non-OPEC supply forecast sees a 0.3 mb/d increase for the full year of 2026, to 78.9 mb/d.

Key Charts