Comparative Analysis of Monthly Reports on the Oil Market

Summary and Oil Market Context

Demand

OPEC lowers its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3 mb/d year-on-year, citing newly received data and uncertainty surrounding international trade. It also projects a moderate decline in global demand growth for 2026, down by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y. Most of this growth comes from non-OECD countries, contributing 1.2 mb/d y/y, while OECD countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d y/y.

The EIA sees significant adjustments in 2025, with global demand growth ~0.4 mb/d lower year-over-year compared to last month’s assessment. Despite this major reduction in demand, the EIA still projects a 0.9 mb/d year-over-year increase. For 2026, the EIA expects global oil demand to grow by 1 mb/d, which is 0.1 mb/d lower than last month’s estimate. However, the EIA notes that its forecasts are subject to major changes, primarily related to global GDP growth and international trade.

The IEA revises its global oil demand growth forecast downward by 0.3 mb/d to 0.7 mb/d year-on-year for 2025, due to expected changes in international trade. It also expects global oil demand to grow by approximately 0.7 mb/d in 2026. The agency notes that risks to these forecasts remain for both years, and that the estimates may change depending on developments related to trade policy and economic growth.

Supply

OPEC revises its forecast for non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs growth for 2025 to 1.0 mb/d y/y, down from 1.1 mb/d in last month’s assessment. It also notes a 0.1 mb/d y/y decline in non-DoC liquid production and DoC NGLs growth for 2026. This growth is primarily driven by the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina in both years.

EIA forecasts that non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs supply growth decline by 0.2 mb/d year-over-year in both 2025 and 2026, reaching 1.3 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively. This growth is primarily supported by countries outside OPEC+, including the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. EIA also projects a 0.2 mb/d decline in its 1.4 mb/d growth estimate for non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs in 2025, and with the same decline projected in 2026, this brings supply growth to 1.0 mb/d.

The IEA projects non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs to reach 77.1 mb/d for the full year of 2025, with forecasted growth of up to 1.4 mb/d year-on-year. It also estimates that growth will reach 1.1 mb/d y/y in 2026. Additionally, the IEA expects its non-DoC supply and DoC NGLs to grow by 1.3 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d y/y in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

The three agencies have revised down their forecasts for global demand due to uncertainty in global trade and economic growth, cautioning that these projections are subject to change based on future developments in international trade and economic conditions.

Summary of 2024 Balances and Revisions

• Despite ongoing uncertainty in economic growth and trade, OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 mb/d year-on-year in 2025 and 2026.
• The divergence in global demand growth estimates across the three agencies is approximately 0.6 mb/d year-on-year in both 2025 and 2026.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• The IEA has slightly revised its global demand growth estimate downward to about 0.81 million barrels per day year-over-year.
• The EIA has lowered its OECD demand growth estimates by over 100 kb/d.

Evolution of 2024 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• EIA's non-DoC supply growth shows a modest downward trend.
• The gap between the EIA and IEA estimates for non-OPEC supply growth exceeds 0.3 mb/d.

Summary of 2025 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d year-on-year in 2025, despite uncertainty surrounding economic growth and trade.
• EIA sees its global demand growth forecast for 2025 declining by 0.4 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d y/y, driven by uncertainty about economic growth and trade.
• The IEA revised down its global demand growth forecasts by 0.3 mb/d year-on-year, relative to last month's assessment

Evolution of 2025 Annual Demand Growth Forecasts

• OPEC adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.3 mb/d year-on-year, driven by newly received data and expected changes in trade.
• EIA revises its global demand growth forecast downward by 0.4 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d year-over-year, compared to last month’s assessment.

Evolution of 2025 Annual Non-OPEC Supply Growth Forecasts

• OPEC adjusts its non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast downward by 0.1 mb/d to 0.9 mb/d y/y.
• EIA's non-DoC supply growth forecast shows a decline of about 0.2 mb/d y/y.

Summary of 2026 Balances and Revisions

• OPEC revises its forecast for global oil demand growth, lowering it by 0.1 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d y/y.
• The EIA lowers its global demand growth forecast by 0.1 mb/d, bringing it to 1 mb/d y/y.
• The IEA forecasts global demand growth of 0.7 mb/d year-on-year for 2026.

Key Charts