Rising Global Mobility Needs Pose Sustainability Challenge
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - Powerful demographic trends will spur global transportation and mobility energy demand over the coming decades, posing challenges and opportunities for reaching sustainable development goals, according to a new report published by the International Energy Forum (IEF).
Transportation and mobility account for more than 50 percent of current global oil demand, and 23 percent energy-related CO2 emissions, so the outlook for the sector is key to making progress on sustainable development goals.
"Growing demand for transportation and mobility is a key indicator of improved living standards, but it also poses a challenge for achieving sustainability goals, especially in long-haul trucking, shipping and aviation where electrification is not feasible,” said Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF.
"Governments should encourage the adoption of next-generation biofuels, trading of carbon credits and energy-efficient engine technologies to shape more sustainable transportation trends,” he added.
Passenger transportation and jet fuel demand are both forecast to grow by 70 percent by 2050, according to the report written by Ali Alsamawi, Energy Analyst at the IEF. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration is expected to reach 23 percent of global passenger vehicles in use by 2035, it adds. However, long-haul trucking, shipping and aviation pose challenges to sustainability, and emissions cuts in these areas will depend on efficiency gains, blending petroleum with low carbon fuels and trading carbon credits.
Transportation and mobility energy demand is projected to rise over the coming decades, with estimates for 2050 ranging widely from 50 to 70 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The divergence reflects differing views over the pace of EV penetration, and the use of low carbon fuels replacing or complementing petroleum products.
By 2050, passenger transport in kilometres is forecast to grow by 90 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, double in Southeast Asia and triple in Sub-Saharan Africa versus 2019 levels, driven by economic expansion, trade growth and urbanization, the report says.
The penetration of EVs will be concentrated in China, the US, and the EU. By contrast, in countries experiencing the most significant economic and population growth, EV penetration will range from less than one percent in 2020 to less than eight percent in 2035, the report says. This could impede efforts to mitigate emissions from transportation, which have risen by more than 70 percent since 1995.
Trade restrictions on EVs and their essential parts will slow down decarbonization efforts, the report says, but favor domestic clean industrial development and manufacturing capabilities.
"A balanced approach to trade, environmental and clean industrial policy is crucial to ensure growing transport sector energy demand remains sustainable," the report says.
