What's on the agenda at COP29?

At this year's Conference of Parties (COP) in Azerbaijan, governments will address critical issues including technology transfer, Article 6, and the need for more ambitious climate action plans. Here’s a look ahead at what’s on the agenda for energy stakeholders.

Building on COP28

Last year's COP28 in the UAE concluded the first 'global stocktake' of efforts to implement the goals of the Paris Agreement. The conference ended with the adoption of the "UAE Consensus" — the first time "transitioning away from fossil fuels" was explicitly mentioned in a UNFCCC COP decision. Outcomes included commitments to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. The summit also saw the launch of the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), a landmark initiative signed by 50 oil and gas companies representing over 40% of global oil production. The charter commits signatories, including an unprecedented number of National Oil Companies (NOCs), to achieving net-zero operations by 2050, end routine flaring by 2030, and reduce upstream methane emissions to near-zero.

This year's conference will aim to build on the progress made in Dubai last year. COP29 President Muhktar Babayes has outlined two priorities for the conference: enhancing ambition and enabling action. The ambition pillar calls on countries to commit to more ambitious national climate plans (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), and push for greater emissions reductions. The action pillar will include calls for countries to set a new global climate finance target, to establish functional carbon markets by operationalizing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and to increase private sector involvement in climate finance schemes.

Climate finance takes center stage

Countries this year are aiming to establish a new global funding goal to replace the previous commitment of $100 billion annually from developed nations to support climate initiatives in developing countries. Agreeing a higher figure — called the "new collective quantified goal on climate finance" (NCQG) — is the "centrepiece" of the conference, according to its President  Muhktar Babayes. Reports suggest that developing nations will require around $2.4 trillion annually by 2030 to address climate change impacts and transition to lower-carbon energy sources.

Agreeing a new figure will present considerable challenges. Many wealthier governments have struggled to meet even the US$100 billion pledge. Specific challenges include agreeing on an amount that will meet demands from developing countries, determining which countries should contribute, and agreeing on a timeframe. There is a clear opportunity to mobilize governments, multilateral finance institutions, and private sector investors around climate finance.

Unlocking the potential of carbon markets

To date various international gatherings have failed to generate consensus on international carbon credit markets. This year's COP offers governments an opportunity to address that, specifically by agreeing on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Article 6 establishes a framework for international carbon markets. It outlines mechanisms for countries to trade carbon credits and collaborate on emissions reduction projects, such as reforestation and renewable energy projects. Progress has been fairly limited to date. Negotiations have stalled around issues including accounting rules, how to avoid "double counting", and how to monitor emissions reductions accurately. This year's COP presents an opportunity to address these unresolved issues and find a way to operationalize Article 6.

COP29 is a moment for global energy stakeholders to balance ambition with practicality. Agreements on carbon markets, Article 6, and NDCs would represent significant, measurable progress. Negotiations must also continue to recognize that different countries are on different pathways to decarbonization. Those pathways should ensure that energy security and access remain a priority.