IEF Thought Leaders' Roundtable

Enhanced dialogue on transport sector sustainability is needed to ensure progress on sustainable development and climate goals, while meeting growing demand for transportation and mobility. Deepening understanding of transportation energy demand outlooks and broadening insight into decarbonization beyond electrification alone, is needed to enhance transport sector sustainability.

IEF analysis and data findings show that 100 percent vehicle electrification targets will require unprecedented copper production rates for battery manufacture and grid upgrades. However, increasing production of copper, and other critical mineral resources, will be insufficient to achieve transport sector electrification targets set by leading economies, where electric vehicle (EV) adoption has begun to slow, and both energy grids and automotive industries are under growing pressure to develop economically viable business models.

Current projections anticipate that EVs will account for 23 percent of global cars in use by 2035 — concentrated among a handful of countries. Furthermore, this growth will not take place in countries experiencing the most significant economic and population growth, and as such, the greatest increases in demand for transportation and mobility. In these emerging markets EV penetration will range from below one percent in 2020 to less than 8 percent in 2035.

Powerful demographic trends — population growth, urbanization, trade, and tourism — will spur global transportation and mobility energy demand over the coming decades. Much will depend on how these trends play out as indicated by the variation in transportation energy demand forecasts between the IEA, EIA, and OPEC that vary by nearly 20 mboe/d by 2050. Regardless, sustainable fuels - including bio-based and synthetic fuels backed by carbon management and market offset solutions - will need to scale at a faster pace to keep up with these global trends. Increasing production of these sustainable fuels can also reinforce social inclusion and competitiveness for resilient green growth.

This Thought Leaders' Roundtable aimed to foster a productive discussion on how countries and industries could prepare for a future that features a range of fuel modalities.

Key Questions

1. How will the transport sector meet growing energy demand sustainably?
2. What should governments do to reduce resource and supply chain market uncertainty to sustainably meet rising transportation and mobility energy demand?
3. How does Sustainable Development Goal 7: to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all, cover access to clean transportation and mobility.
4. Can adoption of a wider spectrum of clean and efficient technologies make transport and mobility demand more sustainable in developing economies?
5. How can IEF producer-consumers collaborate to make transportation and mobility demand trends and solutions more transparent and sustainable e.g. in support the G20 Global Biofuel Alliance, and Circular Carbon Economy?

Speakers

Welcome and Scene Setting

• 

  Jassim Al Shirawi
  Secretary General, IEF

Session 1: Transportation and Mobility Energy Demand Trends and Sustainability

• 

  Sara Vakhshouri
  Founder and President, SVB Energy International, SVB Green Access

• 

  Francesco La Camera
  Director General, IRENA

• 

  Ayed Al-Qahtani
  Director, Research Division, OPEC

• 

  George Thomas
  Deputy Secretary, International Cooperation, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India

• 

  Zongyi Xin
  VP, and President of Eurasia Regional Headquarters, China Energy International Group

• 

  NJ Ayuk
  Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber

• 

  Musaab Al-Mulla
  VP, Energy & Economic Insights, Aramco

• 

  David Cox
  COO, Molecule Group

• 

  Adam C. Simon
  Arthur F. Thurnau Professor of Mineral Resources, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan

Session 2: Scaling Sustainable Fuels through Clean and Efficient Technologies

• 

  Jamie Webster
  Partner and Associate Director, Center for Energy Impact, BCG

• 

  Koji Yamamoto
  Senior Vice President, Energy Business Unit, Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security

• 

  Lee Beck
  Senior Vice President, Global Policy and Commercial Strategy, HIF Global

• 

  Mark Freier
  Director, SIA Energy Net-Zero Advisory

• 

  Tetsuya Nomoto
  Head of Research, Energy and Circular Society Center for Policy and the Economy, Mitsubishi Research Institute

• 

  Yoshikazu Kobayashi
  Senior Research Director, IEEJ

• 

  Mustafa Adel Amer
  Senior Energy Technology Analyst, GECF

Session 3: Strengthening Policy Initiatives and Public-Private Collaboration

• 

  Cornelia Meyer
  CEO , Meyer Resources

• 

  Kevin Jianjun Tu
  Managing Director, Agora Energy Transition China

• 

  Michiel Nivard
  Engagement and Solution Leader, McKinsey & Company

• 

  Neil Atkinson
  Independent Energy Analyst, Former IEA Head Oil Market Division

• 

  Kate Dourian
  Contributing Editor MEES, Board Member, Energy Institute, Middle East Branch

Concluding Remarks

• 

  Jassim Al Shirawi
  Secretary General, IEF

Speaker Presentations

Session 1: Transportation and Mobility Energy Demand Trends and Sustainability

• Ayed Al Qahtani
  Director, Research Division, OPEC
• Adam Simon
  Arthur F. Thurnau Professor of Mineral Resources, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan
• Zongyi Xin
  VP, and President of Eurasia Regional Headquarters China Energy International Group

Session 2: Scaling Sustainable Fuels through Clean and Efficient Technologies

• Koji Yamamoto
  Senior Vice President, Energy Business Unit, Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security
• Lee Beck
  Senior Vice President, Global Policy and Commercial Strategy, HIF Global
• Mark Freier
  Director, SIA Energy Net-Zero Advisory
• Tetsuya Nomoto
  Head of Research, Energy and Circular Society Center for Policy and the Economy, Mitsubishi Research Institute
• Yoshikazu Kobayashi
  Senior Research Director, IEEJ

Video Gallery

Highlights

Interviews

Key Documents

• Agenda
• Transportation and Mobility Energy Demand Outlook Report
• Copper Mining and Vehicle Electrification Report